Wednesday 16 October 2013

India v Australia - Second ODI

Another great game between these two. Aus won the toss and decided to bat. The market was pricing in 275 runs but with some very good batting from Aus and some awful bowling from India, Aus made a massive 359. I got involved in the first innings, which is a rarity for me, in the low 1.2x range. Aus were smashing it about and the market did not seem to want to allow Aus to go below 1.20. It looked a good spot with limited downside or a “free lay” as those on the Betfair forum like to call it. And so it proved.

As well as the limited downside I took the position in the knowledge that the market was still favouring India, not necessarily from a value point of view but from the fact that it was exaggerating price moves in India’s favour. When these situations combine you have a great spot to open a trade. They do not always work out as well as this one did but you can usually at least cover your liabilities.

I was able to take my liability out early in India’s innings and gradually balanced my book as the market moved to evens the pair.



The key in these situations is to leverage your profits as much as possible. Many of you will have heard the phrase “cut your losses and let your profits run”. This can be interpreted in many ways but to me it simply means frame your downside and only take profit when the market offers value. By getting value on opening a trade and getting value on closing you will be well ahead in the long run. It is true that there will be games where no value is available to take profit and in these situations I do not take profit. This can make for a bumpy ride in the short term but this is a long term game.

If you got involved I hope you did ok.

1 comment:


  1. As for the Ashes, I wouldn't change much. Subject to change on today's play. Ballance keeps his place. Can't drop him after one bad series. He's been brilliant since the surprise decision to put him at 3. Bell should be dropped as his batting and surprisingly poor fielding signal something isn't right. Hales is the obvious choice after his county season. The bowling concerns me. Wood has been impressive. Broad was much better at Lord's but is still a concern, as is the burdening of both him and Anderson. Plunkett and Barker must play during the Ashes when our bowlers look jaded. Stokes and Ali arent good enough with the ball to be anything other than a 5th bowler. Ali may prove me wrong as he did last summer, but he certainly won't be enough in the UAE. The only obvious spin option is Rashid, as he had a good season in division 1 and is doing pretty well this year after 2 games.

    India vs Bangladesh 2015

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