India v Australia - Second ODI

Another great game between these two. Aus won the toss and decided to bat. The market was pricing in 275 runs but with some very good batting from Aus and some awful bowling from India, Aus made a massive 359. I got involved in the first innings, which is a rarity for me, in the low 1.2x range. Aus were smashing it about and the market did not seem to want to allow Aus to go below 1.20. It looked a good spot with limited downside or a “free lay” as those on the Betfair forum like to call it. And so it proved.

As well as the limited downside I took the position in the knowledge that the market was still favouring India, not necessarily from a value point of view but from the fact that it was exaggerating price moves in India’s favour. When these situations combine you have a great spot to open a trade. They do not always work out as well as this one did but you can usually at least cover your liabilities.

I was able to take my liability out early in India’s innings and gradually balanced my book as the market moved to evens the pair.

The key in these situations is to leverage your profits as much as possible. Many of you will have heard the phrase “cut your losses and let your profits run”. This can be interpreted in many ways but to me it simply means frame your downside and only take profit when the market offers value. By getting value on opening a trade and getting value on closing you will be well ahead in the long run. It is true that there will be games where no value is available to take profit and in these situations I do not take profit. This can make for a bumpy ride in the short term but this is a long term game.

If you got involved I hope you did ok.

India v Australia – First ODI

I was too late to take a screenshot of the market but there is not much to report from a trading point of view.

The Aussies batted first and posted a good total of 304 with Bailey and Finch producing good knocks. As is often (always!) the case with games involving India – and thanks to Bossman for pointing this out in his comment – the market rarely gave Aus the credit they deserved. Anyone would think that betting was legal in India!

India started off slowly trying to see off the most dangerous of the Aus bowlers and really never got into the chase. The run rate kept climbing and was in the 9s when Dhoni and Jadeja came together. The market was in the mid-1.1x range at the time and knowing the market love for India it was not going to take much to be able to cover liability and hope Dhoni could perform his magic.

I was able to take my liability out but good bowling from Faulkner in particular meant that India could not make use of the batting power play – how often does that happen?! – and that was pretty much that. I ended up with decent green on India and no loss on Aus. Shame there was no chance to start balancing my book.

Incidentally, if you do not follow Bossman’s blog you should do. He provides in running commentary on most games and it is well worth a look. You can find his link on the right.

India v Australia - T20

Great game yesterday. There was no opportunity for me to get involved so in the end I just sat back and watched the exciting finish.

One interesting thing to come out of the game from a trading point of view was the market’s reaction to Australia’s innings. The graph below, taken during change of innings, illustrates the point.

Many of you will be familiar with support and resistance levels and this graph shows how the market would not let Aus’s price go much below 1.5. In fact the price bounced 7 times of this resistance point! This is a common occurrence and something new traders should look out for.

Over the years I have developed a model of prices for T20s. Whilst there are more variables in the second innings, first innings prices are reasonably straight forward to model using the market’s expectancy of runs. This model is useful to identify resistance points and often you can lay the batting side after a good start for little risk.

I will talk more about modelling and support and resistance points in later posts.

India v Australia - T20

Good preview of tomorrow's T20 by Ed Hawkins over at Betfair: http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/20-twenty-cricket/t20-betting-india-v-australia-hosts-should-assert-superiority-over-wobbly-aussies-091013-194.html

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This Week

Cricket pickings are slim this week with just the India v Australia and Afghanistan v Kenya games on the T20 front. The India game starts at a very civilised 2.30 and the Afghanistan game at 4.00. There may be liquidity issues with the Afghanistan match but that should be offset by the fact that most market participants will not be as familiar with the Afghan and Kenyan players so there should be some juicy prices for those in the know. (There’s a tip there if you look hard enough!)

On Sunday the meaningless ODI India v Australia ODI series starts. Michael Clarke has developed a rather politically correct recurrence of his back problems – the BCCI paymasters would not have been happy had he merely been rested before the Ashes – and it will be interesting to see how the Aussies approach it. With little other cricket between now and the first Ashes test those involved will want to push for a place in the test team.

Mumbai Indians v Rajasthan Royals

Needless to say I am happy with that!

Felt comfortable enough to return to my normal trading stakes today and it is pleasing to produce a good result. So often when you look to “up” things the trading Gods decide to give you a kick in the whatsanames. That may still be around the corner of course so I will trade the next game wearing my jock strap and box!

That is probably too much information so on to the game…

The market was pricing a fairly typical 160ish runs and when Mumbai smashed 202/6 and took Perera’s wicket early they were trading in the late 1.1x range. It was an impressive team performance with each batsman contributing but the standout knock was Maxwell with 37 off 14 at a strike rate of 264.

It looked a big task for the Royals but my reading of the pitch is that it was playing well so I took a position on the fall of Perera’s wicket. Fortunately the timing was perfect as a decent stand from Rahane and Sansom spooked the market and it blew out to over 2.5. I was out long before this point though, taking my liability out in the low 1.3x range and levelling up around the 2.0 mark.

The graph of the effect on the market of the partnership is a pleasing sight… assuming you were on the right side of it!

And that was pretty much it for me. When I have a decent win banked I do not like to push things. I did consider opening another position at the same sort of price but the Royals did not have enough batting firepower left in the shed.

Hope you did ok if you got involved.