One interesting thing to come out of the game from a trading point of view was the market’s reaction to Australia’s innings. The graph below, taken during change of innings, illustrates the point.
Many of you will be familiar with support and resistance levels and this graph shows how the market would not let Aus’s price go much below 1.5. In fact the price bounced 7 times of this resistance point! This is a common occurrence and something new traders should look out for.
Over the years I have developed a model of prices for T20s. Whilst there are more variables in the second innings, first innings prices are reasonably straight forward to model using the market’s expectancy of runs. This model is useful to identify resistance points and often you can lay the batting side after a good start for little risk.
I will talk more about modelling and support and resistance points in later posts.
Great post, thank you..... looking forward to your post on modelling.
ReplyDeleteMany Thanks
Hi BR,
DeleteI have a draft post on heuristics to finish off and I will put something together after that.
Rob
Hi,
ReplyDeleteMuch as in the T20, there is a definate bias towards India in the ODi, presently underway.
Its tricky, to bet against the mkt, but, some points, are just too key to miss .. and u have the value.
Finding .. the right pressure points, are key, to making profits.
Cheers